🎁 As a valued reader, you’re receiving this gift article from our editorial team. We hope you find value in our journalism and the work we do! --- | Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks at a news conference in Saguenay, Que., on March 20, 2025. The Canadian Press/Jacques Boissinot | By Omid Ghoreishi News Analysis There have been several reports over the past week that some federal and provincial Conservative campaigners are urging the Poilievre Conservatives to pivot to focus more on the Trump factor as the Liberals’ gain in the polls. But David Coletto, CEO of the polling company Abacus Data, says that this won’t help the Conservatives gain an edge over the Liberals, as the shifting support from the NDP to the Liberals is a bigger factor. Instead, he suggests that the Conservatives keep the focus on the “change” factor. “The biggest factor in this federal election is the complete collapse of the NDP,” Coletto said on the X platform on March 29. “Fighting on the Trump field doesn’t solve that problem for the CPC [Conservative Party of Canada].” And the Conservatives’ announcements over the past few days seem to be more focused on the “change” factor. Falling NDP Support The Liberals’ steep fall in the polls last year has seen a sharp reversal since Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign in January, and with Mark Carney taking over as new Liberal leader and prime minister in March. A March 27 poll by Abacus Data shows support for the Liberals rose from 27 percent in January to 41 percent by March 25, while the Conservatives fell from 46 percent to 37 percent and the NDP dropped from 18 percent to 11 percent. While the percentage change for the Conservatives compared to their January standing is a decrease of 20 percent, the decline for the NDP is 40 percent. After Carney won the Liberal leadership race and was sworn in as prime minister along with his cabinet on March 14, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said the exclusion of former Liberal House leader Karina Gould from the new cabinet sent “a message to progressive Liberals that there’s no place for you in this new Liberal party.” Gould had run in the Liberal leadership race with more progressive policies compared to the other candidates. To be sure, Carney’s cabinet still maintains key cabinet figures with progressive bona fides, including former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, who has said in the House of Commons that he is a “proud socialist.” But what has been driving NDP supporters to the Carney Liberals has been primarily the Trump factor. Even former NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has said if a party can’t form a government “that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it.” “I’m hearing even from die hard, lifelong ‘Dippers’ (as we jokingly called ourselves), that the risks to Canada are so great that in this election, they’re going to be helping and voting for the Liberals,” Mulcair wrote in a March 24 op-ed for Bloomberg. The Trump Factor and Parties’ Messaging Shortly after Donald Trump’s presidential election win in November and the start of his tariff threats against Canada, the Conservatives first focused their messaging on their plan to cut taxes and efforts to attract investment. “Trump wants our jobs,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre told Corus radio on Nov. 15, adding that as prime minister he would make Canada competitive to ensure that doesn’t happen. | A Special Offer for You Enjoy 6 months for $1 Canada votes on April 28—a pivotal election that will shape our country’s future and define how we move forward amid U.S. policies that may impact us. In times like these, it’s easy to fall prey to spin, bias, and carefully crafted narratives. That’s why you need journalism you can trust—fact-based, in-depth reporting that helps you understand what’s really going on and make good decisions. As a mission-driven, independent media outlet, we’re here to help you take back control of what shapes your decisions. Enjoy 6 months of unlimited access today for just $1! | Offer ends on April 8 | Cancel anytime For new customers only | But as Trump ramped up his rhetoric on tariffs against Canada and his “51st state” comments, the issue gained more importance and was reported as a priority in public opinion polls. It also dominated the Liberal leadership race that was launched after Trudeau announced his intention to resign. Former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said when running for the leadership that Trump posed the greatest risk to Canada since World War II, while Carney said Canada is facing its “greatest crisis of our lifetime” because of the U.S. president. With the change in the political environment also came a change in the Conservatives’ messaging. On Feb. 15, Poilievre held a “Canada First” rally in Ottawa that marked a change from previous rallies where the key slogan was “Axe the Tax,” referring to the Liberals’ carbon tax. During the rally he came out strongly against Trump’s 51st state comments. “Never confuse our kindness with weakness,” Poilievre said. But as the Liberal leadership race continued and Carney became prime minister, the polling trend showed a sustained increase in support for the Liberals, with their momentum even pushing them past the Conservatives in most polls. A March 27 Toronto Star article quoted former CPC campaigner Kory Teneycke, who led the campaign of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives as they won successive majority governments, saying that there is “every buzzer and alarm” going off in the Conservative campaign. From a policy standpoint, as the United States takes on a more protectionist approach, both the Conservatives and Liberals have been announcing measures meant to develop Canada’s economic capability and diversify trading markets. This includes both parties making it a priority to remove interprovincial trade barriers, announcing initiatives to build “energy corridors,” and establishing stronger trade relations with other allies. As prime minister, Carney has announced new support packages for workers and businesses impacted by tariffs, saying he will use proceeds from retaliatory tariffs to support Canadians, and discussed building national trade corridors with premiers. On the campaign trail, he has said he would build more infrastructure, including developing ports, railroads, airports, and highways, to increase Canada’s capability in trade and increase cooperation among ports. Poilievre has also said he would use the proceeds from retaliatory tariffs to support impacted workers. A key Conservative policy announced on March 30 would remove the capital gains tax for proceeds reinvested in Canada. As well, Poilievre has said he would remove the industrial carbon tax and scrap the Impact Assessment Act and the federal cap on emissions in the oil and gas sector to allow more growth in the energy sector, as the Trump administration drives its “unleashing American energy” agenda and lowers taxes. But it’s on the anti-Trump posture that Poilievre is facing pressure to step up. The March 27 Toronto Star article quotes Teneycke and other Conservative sources as saying they want to see Poilievre focus more on Trump. The next day, however, the Conservatives returned to one of their key Trudeau-era campaign points, emphasizing the need to rein in crime and promising life sentences for major drug traffickers. | Read More Gift Articles for You 🎁 | Offer ends on April 8 | Cancel anytime For new customers only | "Very informative, well balanced, and trustworthy. 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